State of Origin Betting Guide

All the information on every 2021 bet online State of Origin possibility. From betting sites, tips, trends, history, statistics and analysis why the Blues or Maroons can/can’t win, BettingTop10 is your #1 one-stop to pick the State of Origin winners.

Before we great cracking into the ups and downs of the NSW v QLD odds and State of Origin Betting Tips lets take a closer look over the two protagonists for the State of Origin title in 2021, beginning with the contenders, the NSW Blues and following up with the current State of Origin champions, the almost-always underdog Queensland Maroons.

New South Wales Blues (NSW)

• State of Origin Winners History – Titles Won – 15 – 1985, 1986, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2014, 2018, 2019.

The case for an NSW Series Win

• They have James Tedesco, the best player in the game.
• NSW coach Brad Fittler is one of few New South Welshman who can inspire his players to a similar level of passion as the legendary Queensland intensity.
• The Blues in Damien Cook have a dummy half to play fast and get his forwards on the march quickly.
• Tom Trbojevic has returned from his long-term injury and is starring week-in, week-out for the Manly Sea Eagles.
• Emerging talent and player back-up in key positions such as Ryan Papenhuyzen, Clint Gutherson, Zac Lomax, Latrell Mitchell in case any of the Blues starts suffer injuries.
• Queensland are unsettled in the coaching ranks with the untested Paul Green taking charge of the Maroons. The NRL Premiership-winning coach has plenty of club experience, however Brad ‘Freddie’ Fittler holds the significant edge in coaching experience at NRL level.

The case against an NSW Series Win

• The Blues could be seen to have too many stars in their ranks and the potential for disunity among the players is high with a host of players with big egos batting for the same positions in the Blues line-up.
• As always, the Blues miss the ‘us-vs-them’ mentality that lifts the Queenslanders to perform above themselves.
• Two matches away from Sydney to begin the series. The Blues are almost always a 10-point per match better team in Sydney.

The @NSWBlues have claimed their biggest State of #Origin win EVER! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/rv0FY4eFWX

— NRL (@NRL) June 9, 2021

Queensland Maroons (QLD)

• The current champions – Won 11 State of Origin series in 12 years prior to losing in 2018 and 2019 before winning the title back in 2020.
• State of Origin Winners History – Titles Won – 24 – 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2002 (Drawn Series but held shield), 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017.

The case for a QLD Series Win

• The form of the Gold Coast Titans and in particular, rampaging young forward, David Fifita who has evolved into the most damaging forward in the game today. His tries and runs out wide have the potential to swing the entire series into Queensland’s favour.
• The QLD forward pack has firepower – the previously mentioned David Fifita, Moeaki Fotuaika, Josh Papalii, Jai Arrow, Tino Fa’asuamalaeaui, Kurt Capewell, Jaydn Su’A, Lindsay Collins and Felise Kaufusi. If NSW can’t go forward, their star-studded backline may mis-fire.
• The emergence and form of young Harry Grant. The Storm hooker has been electric in club footy and has shown he can swing any game including Game 3 in his State of Origin in 2020.
• The QLD spirit. State of Origin is built on the QLD underdog mentality. Without it, there is no State of Origin. The QLD players know it and understand it, thoroughly and completely.

The case against a QLD Series Win

• Australia’s Betting Apps are clearly concerned about QLD’s lack of experience in the coaching ranks. Yes, Paul Green did well at the Cowboys in winning an NRL Grand Final, but his strategies did not evolve during his time at the club. The failure to adapt better at State of Origin level could be potentially disastrous for the Maroons.
• Only one game in Brisbane. QLD are almost unbeatable at home in front of their raucous fans, but playing the first two matches away plays heavily into the hands of NSW.
• Lack of player depth. While QLD’s best 13 can arguably go toe-to-toe with NSW, the Blues bench should be deeper than QLD’s.
• If any of the big QLD stars go down with injury, there is not as much player quality to choose from as replacements, compared to the Blues.

There are always a range of special betting markets on the State of Origin Series, and a range of the most varied betting markets are usually launched a week or two before the series begins.

Punters’ Favourite State of Origin Betting Markets

• Head-to Head Betting – A simple bet on whether the QLD Maroons and NSW Blues will win an individual game outright. Head-to-Head Odds on State of Origin are usually quite even although occasionally some betting sites offer inflated odds in order to balance their books in more lopsided betting markets.
• Line Betting – Line Betting options on State of Origin are usually tight affairs not offering a lot of value, although that may change in 2021 with NSW such heavy favourites to win. Line betting is a type of handicap betting where either Team A or Team B receive a head start with ‘the line’ being where the two teams meet at equal odds, usually in the range of $1.88 to $1.91.
  By way of example, if you punt on The Queensland Maroons to beat a line of +3.5 against the New South Wales Blues in Game 1, even if the Maroons lose the match by 3 points, you will still win your bet.
• Anytime Try Scorer: Bet on a player from either QLD or NSW to score a try at any time in any State of Origin 2021 match.
• Series Leading Tryscorer – Take a punt on which player will be the leading tryscorer across the entire NRL State of Origin 2021 series.
• Series Betting – A simple bet type on which team will win the series outright. If you’d like to pick the correct series score the NRL State of Origin Series Scores Betting Odds will be available around 2 weeks out from Game 1.

*(All odds current as at 2 May 2021 – Subject to change)

• Man of the Match – Each State of Origin 2021 match should offer Man of the Match Betting for the best player of each match.
• Wally Lewis Medal Winner – Named for one of Queensland’s all-time greats, the Wally Lewis Medal is awarded each year to the player of the series and offers great betting opportunities.
  Recent winners include:

Cameron Munster (QLD) 2020
James Tedesco (NSW) 2019
Billy Slater (QLD) 2018
Dane Gagai (QLD) 2017
Cameron Smith (QLD) 2016
Corey Parker (QLD) 2015

• Check for Injuries to Key Players – As NSW have the greater player depth to cover any injuries to key players, check the current status of the players involved. If QLD are beset by injuries for any match in State of Origin 2021, it is almost certain you would place your money on NSW to win that particular match.
• Never underestimate QLD – On the other hand, when written off by experts and bookies, QLD are at their most dangerous. Anyone old enough to remember Fatty Vautin’s team of unknowns that humiliated NSW 3-0 in 1995 knows all about it.
• Prop Bets Markets Usually Offer the Best Returns – Betting markets like Line Betting, First Tryscorer, Anytime Tryscorer, Most Tackles, Wally Lewis Medal Winner etc. usually offer better betting odds and potential returns than head-to-head match betting in State of Origin.